Key Economic Data - Coming Up Today(All Times GMT+2)
The expectations ahead of the Eurogroup of a make or break meeting for Greece and the EU failed to materialize. The threat made by Eurogroup leader Joroen Dijsselbloem that Greece must reach an agreement at the emergency meeting and be ready to conclude a new deal or extension with the Eurogroup by Monday the 16th of Feb or otherwise face an exit from the EU raised the heat before yesterday's event. The intensity has been high since Syriza won the Greek elections two weeks ago and going in to this meeting sparks had been expected to fly and there was the potential for huge market moves and potential dislocation in financial markets if the markets worst fears were stoked or confirmed by a failure to reach a compromise at this critical gathering of Europe's power-brokers which included also Head of the IMF Christine Lagarde. There have been various conflicting headlines doing the rounds. Thus far some media sources have speculated that an agreement was reached between the two parties and the only obstacle left is the wording of the statement or announcement. Neither side would like it to appear that they conceded their original stance. On the other hand BBC News reports that: 'Greece Bailout Talks: No agreement in Brussels' while the Guardian runs with the headline: 'Greek bailout talks fail to make progress'. Another source of information we have at our disposal is the reaction in the markets. The EURUSD remained within this week's range, trading between 1.1280-1.1352. After the conclusion of talks and statements the Euro traded towards the upper range of this week's price action. The EURUSD remains in an extremely narrow range this week between 1.1270-1.1359, this 89 pip range is one of the smallest intra-week fluctuations with 3 1/2 trading days of this week already passed. The currency market is indicating that there is uncertainty as to the outcome of the bailout negotiations; with markets neither leaning towards the Grexit scenario and neither pricing in a new bailout deal. And the clearest sign is the hesitation as signalled by the restricted range of trading this week.
This morning an announcement by the BOJ (Bank of Japan) that further stimulus will be counter-productive for the Japanese economy led to a strengthening of the YEN against the USD. The USDJPY slumped from 120.25 to 118.70 in a 155 pip move in just 10 minutes. Overnight the Australian economy showed weakness as employment data slumped with the economy losing 12.2k jobs and the Unemployment Rate jumped from 6.1% to 6.4%. The AUDUSD fell 80 pips from high to low. This morning the German Final CPI m/m worsened from -1.0% to -1.1% in a deepening of the deflationary trend. For the rest of the day there is key news on the EUR, GBP and CAD. (see calendar above)
EURUSD Support areas include 1.1325, 1.1250, 1.1200, 1.1150 1.1100, 1.1050, 1.10, 1.0950. Resistance levels above are at 1.14, 1.15, 1.16, 1.1650, 1.1700, 1.1800, 1.1975, 1.2000, 1.2200, 1.2300, 1.2380, 1.2402.
EURUSD 10 Minute Chart
EURUSD 2 Hour Chart
AUDUSD 10 Minute Chart
EURUSD Pivot Point Table