Key Economic Data - Coming Up Today (All Times GMT+2)
Pivot Point Table
The EURUSD closed at 1.1837 last week and rose to 1.1871 early this morning. The price has since retreated to 1.1816 in quick 30 minute burst to the downside. The low for this year is at 1.1754 and this is also a 10yr low. With the price hovering barely 0.5% away from the low we cannot rule out further lows today. The pair has fallen for seven consecutive months and is in a steep downtrend. At this point it is difficult to forecast when the pair will bounce although the ability to correctly time such a trade will likely result in good gains for those who dare. At present most market participants will be inclined to follow the trend and if the trend continues the money will be made in EURUSD puts and short-selling. Today there is little economic data to affect the pair although in the US FOMC Member Lockhart will deliver a speech at 17:40GMT. At present there is some uncertainty as to whether the Federal Reserve will actually deliver the interest rises that are set for mid-2015. The Fed has pushed this back year after year since 2010, although at this stage it does appear more realistic that interest rate increases could be initiated by the Fed. The US economy has been growing strongly and is exhibiting sufficient strength to warrant an increase in the main lending rate. The problem comes from weakness in the Eurozone, slumping oil prices and a slowdown in the economy of China. Any move away from following through with the US monetary tightening will be gradually hinted at by the FOMC members to the markets in order not to be announced suddenly and potential cause market dislocations.
Tomorrow features a packed schedule on the economic data front starting overnight with the Chinese Trade Balance which is expected to show a narrowing of the trade surplus from $54.5B to $49.8B monthly. In the UK CPI data is set to show a further reduction in the inflation rate of economy declining from 1.0% to 0.7% y/y. Weaker inflation could lead to a slightly softer pound. The main highlight in the US which will interest market participants will be the JOLTS Job Openings as well as the USD 10yr Bond Auction.
EURUSD Support areas include 1.1750, 1.1650, 1.1600, 1.1500, 1.1400, 1.1350.
Resistance levels above are at 1.1975, 1.2000, 1.2200, 1.2300, 1.2380, 1.2402, 1.2444, 1.2500.
EUR/USD 5 Min Chart
EUR/USD 1 Hour Chart