Key Economic Data - Coming Up Today(All Times GMT+3)
The EURUSD has recovered from the 1.2439 low and fought its way back to 1.2531. Yesterday's low of 1.2439 is a new two year low and the price needs to rise above 1.2550 to increase the odds of an upside movement. The USDJPY moved higher from 112.35 to 114.20 and is now at 113.68. Overnight the Australian Central Bank kept the Cash Rate at 2.5%. This morning Spanish Unemployment increased by 79,200, far worse than expectations of 23,400 more unemployed persons. Next up in the economic calendar is GBP Construction PMI, followed by the EU Economic Forecasts. In the afternoon markets will be watching the US Trade Balance and Factory Orders. The US Congressional Elections are in full swing today and any big developments could affect US markets. Over in Asia New Zealand will release Employment data and the Unemployment Rate. The Daily RSI is 37.3 and the Weekly RSI is at 25.7 indicating that the pair is potentially in oversold territory.
The technical picture for the EURUSD is weak, as seen on the H1, the blue rising trendline for the pair has been broken in devastating fashion. This ends the hopes for the EURUSD targeting a move beyond 1.2890 and within range of the key 1.30 level. At present the Euro is under pressure with the pair below 1.30 and still trading below the downtrend channel as seen in the H4. As long as the pair remains below 1.30 and below the downtrend channel, the bias remains bearish. - This has been our consistent outlook for two month now, although the picture had become more mixed as the pair had re-entered the lower end of the downtrend channel as seen in the H4 Chart. Overall the bias is sill negative for the EURUSD although there is slightly more hope for the bulls now due to the price action of the last three weeks. The pair had recently begun to re-enter into the lower end of the downtrend channel. The price has now collapsed and signaled this latest attempt to rebound in the EURUSD as a failure.
EURUSD Support areas include 1.2500, 1.2475, 1.2425, 1.2300. Resistance levels above are at 1.2600, 1.2700, 1.2845, 1.2800, 1.2900,1.30 figure level, followed by 1.3165.
EURUSD 15 Minute Chart
EURUSD 1 Hour Chart
EURUSD Pivot Point Table
Gold has kept within a range between $1161 and $1178. The price is currently trading at $1166.78 and a break below or above the range could lead to a breakout in that particular direction. Following months of steep declines Gold has settled below the $1180 key support area and may be set for further declines. Investors have less reason to purchase Gold as a hedge or safe haven now that US interest rate markets are in the process of normalization. The rising yield curve implied across the financial markets makes Gold less of a safe bet. Gold has risen from $245 an ounce in 1999 to $1921 in 2011 and is now down at $1166. After a 40% decline there could be increased volatility in both directions, both up and down.
Coming up today, EU Economic Forecasts and the US Trade Balance have the potential to move Gold markets. On Wednesday the US ADP Non-Farm Employment Change and the on Friday the US NFP and Unemployment Rate will certainly create heightened volatility in the Gold trade.
Support levels for Gold can be seen at $1160, $1155, $1145, $1130. Resistance to the upside materializes at $1185, $1195, $1205, $1215, $1225, $1235, $1240.
Gold 15 Minute Chart
Gold 1 Hour Chart
Gold Pivot Point Table