The daily chart continues to display strong momentum by the GBP, and despite the USD minor strengthening it still isn’t strong enough to push the pair down. The important up trend line from August 13 is still relevant and supports the price action which today it around 1.6343, any down trend below this line will be faced by more buy area at 1.6243 and 1.5849. A close above 1.6591 (last high) will trigger the next leg up with new targets at 1.7109 and 1.7858.
Since the beginning of 2014 the pair has been trading below the 10 DMA in spite of having been traded above it for most of 2013. This technical signal induces us to consider the possibility of a correction after 50% rally and no real correction until today. It is still too early to determine whether the correction is already in play, and it also requires a clear cross of the 10 DMA and the 50 DMA. For now the EUR is holding above the 50 DMA but find strong resistance at the 10 DMA which results in sideway trading between the moving averages. A breakout and a cross of the 50 DMA (140.46), combined with a negative slop on the 10 DMA will complete the correction pattern with targets at 138.98 and 137.66 (100 DMA).
|Support||140.46 (50 DMA)||138.98||137.66 (100 DMA)|
|Resistance||141.91 (10 DMA)||142.88||145.08 (all time high)|
The crude oil shows determination as it lingers above the 91.73 pivot line and has even taken back some of its aggressiveness, which was missed since 2014. However, our technical picture didn’t change as the crude failed again and again to close above the 14 DMA. Furthermore, the failure to reach the first Fibonacci line at 95.159 just added pressure to further weakness and price declines to be followed. Our technical picture will be reconsidered only after we see a cross to the upside of the moving averages and supports above the first Fibonacci line at 95.159.
|Support||94.06 (10 DMA)||93||91.73|
|Resistance||94.31 (14 DMA)||95.15 (38.2% Fibo)||96.23 (50% Fibo)|