Key Economic Data - Coming Up Today(All Times GMT+3)
The EURUSD proved to be unable to hold on to the 1.2600 and spent most of yesterday trading between 1.2525 and 1.2575. This morning the pair has fallen through 1.2500 and so far has declined to as low as 1.2457. The EURUSD spent most of this week above 1.2500 raising the prospects of a near term upside correction in the pair following months of declines. Last week the EURUSD battled each day of the week to reach 1.2500 before being hammered back down to 1.2400 each day and on Friday the pair finally broke above 1.2500 and closed the weekend above the key level. This week's closing level will be important in determining the outlook for next week. Anything below 1.2500 is not good for the Euro, particularly below 1.2465 is negative from a technical standpoint. After the release of the FOMC Meeting Minutes the USD eased off allowing the pair to break higher and touch 1.2600. The pair is now 1% and 130pips lower than the weekly high and just 1% off the two year low. The closer the pair gets to the low the more the downward pull that is created. The week's range is still holding at 1.2443-1.2600, and 1.2443 could be a level of buy and call interest to test the lower boundary of the week. The pair has a two-year low level at 1.2358 and we are just under 1% above the lows, while the October high is at 1.2883 just below 1.30. WTI Crude Oil is up to $76.29 a barrel, after reaching $76.50 moments ago. The US DJIA is up close to the all-time high at 17,719 and the USDJPY has fallen from the new high at 119 Yen to 117.35 and is now trading at 117.91.
The RSI on the EURUSD Weekly Chart has crossed back below 30 and is making a new 3-day low at 27.5. A reading of 30 on the RSI is considered oversold and raises the possibility of a near term recovery in the pair. The next move will be to see if the RSI stabilizes and moves higher or if it will fall back towards the reading of 15 made in September this year. The EURUSD has declined for each of the last 4 months and at 1.2457 is down for a fifith month in Novemeber also.
At present the Euro is under pressure with the pair below 1.30 and still trading below the downtrend channel as seen in the H4. As long as the pair remains below 1.30 and below the downtrend channel, the bias remains bearish. - This has been our consistent outlook for three months. The pair has been below the key 1.30 level for eight consecutive weeks.
EURUSD Support areas include 1.2450, 1.2400, 1.2365, 1.2335, 1.2300, 1.2200, 1.2250. Resistance levels above are at 1.2600, 1.2700, 1.2845, 1.2800, 1.2900 & 1.30.
EURUSD 5 Minute Chart
EURUSD 4 Hour Chart
EURUSD Pivot Point Table
Gold recovered from Wednesday's volatility where the price swung sharply several times between the $1170 area and $1200. Gold yesterday planted itself at the top of the range and re-tested the $1200 area several times and failed at and around the $1197 an ounce area several times. This morning the shiny metal made a new two day high at $1199.75 before slumping abruptly by $13, down to $1187 in just over 30 minutes. The latest 1% decline in Gold brings the price back to the lower end of the yesterday's trading range and the price needs to remain above this level to continue bullish momentum, whereas a retreat below $1185 will change the tone to a negative one. The next important level is the $1180 area which is a key support line followed by the weekly low of $1174.
The next month and a half will be key to determining if Gold can recover up above $1200 and continue to erase some of this years losses. Gold opened the year at $1205 an ounce and therefore is only 2% down for the year. In the early months of this year Gold had advanced as high as $1388 an ounce and as such is $200 off the yearly highs for 2014. With a just over a month until the end of this year it is integral to see if Gold closes higher or lower than the Jan 1st 2014 level. Between 1999 and 2013 for 14 consecutive years the price rose year to year. In 2013 the price opened the year at $1674 and closed at $1205 posting a first yearly loss in 15 years. Therefore it is key to see if the year to year loss extends into a second year of if Gold can shrug of 2013 as a bad year and recover back up towards the 2011 all-time high of $1921. Gold prices have fallen from $1345 an ounce in August to as low as $1130 in November, erasing $215 from the value of Gold. The $1180 area remains the key to a recovery in Gold which is down from above $1900 in 2011. Gold had advanced from $245 an ounce in 1999 to $1921 in 2011 posting 12 years of straight gains. Now the market has leveled off. Now the price is above $1180 the odds of a recovery are improved, if the price slips below $1180 the outlook turns bearish.
Support levels for Gold can be seen at $1180, $1160 $1140, $1130, $1125, $1115, $1100. Resistance to the upside materializes at $1195, $1205, $1215, $1225, $1235, $1240.
Gold 5 Minute Chart
Gold 4 Hour Chart
Gold Pivot Point Table