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Key Economic Data

EURUSD

The EURUSD declined to a new low of 1.2278 before sharply rising to 1.2450 in the space of one hour. The large upside move recorded coincided with the ECB Press Conference by Mario Draghi. The pair had opened the week at 1.2437 before falling to the low of 1.2279 and succeeded in just surpassing the weekly opening price before falling again to trade at a current rate of 1.2375. The pair had reached the heights as 1.2508 on Tuesday before US Dollar stormed back making new highs against Euro, Yen, Aud, Cad and Ruble amongst others. Recent Crude Oil weakness and broad based commodity declines have boosted inflows into US Dollars and kept the pressure on other major pairs as well as emerging market and resource based currencies. The Russian Ruble reached a new low at 54.8 following a key speech by Vladimir Putin on the Russian economy and is down 40% for 2014, the price is currently at 53.35 for the USDRUB. The USDJPY rose above 120 for the first time in 7 years climbing as high as 120.33. The AUDUSD bounced with the EUR climbing from 0.8360 to reach 0.8420 although the Aussie looks generally weak for the time being. Yesterday both the UK Bank of England and Euro ECB opted to keep interest rates on hold at the current levels with no changes announced. US Unemployment Claims improved declining to a rate of 297k down from last week’s 314k. Today markets will focus on the US Non-Farm Payrolls data and the US Unemployment Rate plus the Trade Balance for the US. The same three data points will be released for the Canadian economy and currency at exactly the same time 12:30GMT. The US NFP Employment data stands out as the single most important data released globally each month. The result of the release is usually large moves in fx markets and heightened volatility. Also affected are Bonds, Stocks, Commodities and other liquid asset classes. For the EURUSD the 1.2444 level, 1.2402 level and the previous low at 1.2357 are all key pivot points and added to this are the two latest lows of 1.2301 and 1.2279. The US DJIA remains close to the all-time highs above 17,900.

The RSI on the EURUSD Weekly Chart has crossed back below 30 reaching 24.5, following volatility round the 30 figure. From 24.5 yesterday the reading has now climbed up to 27.57. Readings of 30 and below on the RSI are considered oversold and this could raise the possibility of a near term recovery in the pair. The next move will be to see if the RSI stabilizes and moves higher or if it will fall back towards the reading of 15 made in September this year. The EURUSD has declined for each of the last 5 months and opened for December at 1.2437. Any close above this level for December will break the run before it turns six consecutive months. At present e EURUSD is facing a 6th consecutive monthly loss.

At present the Euro is under pressure with the pair below 1.30 and still trading below the downtrend channel as seen in the H4. As long as the pair remains below 1.30 and below the downtrend channel, the bias remains bearish. - This has been our consistent outlook for three months. The pair has been below the key 1.30 level for eight consecutive weeks. To change the trend the EURUSD must consolidate above 1.2500 and rise above 1.2883 raising the prospects of a near term upside correction in the pair following months of declines. Last week's second consecutive weekly close below 1.2500 after holding above this level for most of the week sent a bearish signal to investors.

EURUSD Support areas include 1.2320, 1.2300, 1.2250, 1.2200, 1.2150. Resistance levels above are at 1.2300, 1.2450, 1.2600, 1.2700, 1.2845, 1.2800, 1.2900 & 1.30.

EURUSD 5 Minute Chart

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EURUSD Hourly Chart

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EURUSD 4 Hour Chart

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EURUSD Daily Chart

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EURUSD Pivot Point Table

EURUSD Levels
Resistance 1 1.2391
Resistance 2 1.2406
Resistance 3 1.2419
Pivot 1.2378
Support 1 1.2363
Support 2 1.2350
Support 3 1.2326