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Key Economic Data

EURUSD

The EURUSD fell just below 1.2500 last night repeating the same pattern that has occurred each trading day so far this week. The market has fallen as low as 1.2426 and is now at 1.2441. Yesterday better than expected French inflation data combined with poor US Employment data helped the EURUSD rally up to 1.2495. The US Unemployment Claims grew to 290k vs exp 282 whilst the JOLTS Job Openings printed at 4.74M vs the 4.81M that had been anticipated. This had helped the pair climb from 1.2430 to retest 1.2500 before the latest attempt failed. Today is the last trading day of the week and it will be significant to see where the pair will close: Above 1.2500?, Below 1.2400? Or inside the range? This morning French GDP data was released at 0.3% quarterly growth and was better than the 0.1% growth expected by markets, while the German GDP data came inline with expectations at 0.1%. the GDP for the rest of the EU will also be released this morning. A positive EU GDP figure could help the pair make another move higher to the top of the range. WTI Crude Oil made a significant break lower reaching $73.30 and reaching a 4 year low. The decline through the two year low came despite a positive US Crude Oil Inventories report. Today US Retail Sales and Core Retail Sales, as well as a raft of other US economic data are likely to affect markets.

The RSI on the EURUSD Weekly Chart is at 24.6 vs 24.9 yesterday and 27.35 the day before, which is considered oversold and raises the possibility of a near term recovery in the pair. The EURUSD has declined for each of the last 4 months and is lower in November also.

At present the Euro is under pressure with the pair below 1.30 and still trading below the downtrend channel as seen in the H4. As long as the pair remains below 1.30 and below the downtrend channel, the bias remains bearish. - This has been our consistent outlook for two and a half months.

EURUSD Support areas include1.2400, 1.2365, 1.2335, 1.2300, 1.2200, 1.2250. Resistance levels above are at 1.2450, 1.2535, 1.2600, 1.2700, 1.2845, 1.2800, 1.2900.

EURUSD 30 Minute Chart

EURUSD 

EURUSD 1 Hour Chart

EURUSD 

EURUSD Pivot Point Table

EURUSD Levels
Resistance 1 1.2481
Resistance 2 1.2505
Resistance 3 1.2533
Pivot 1.2454
Support 1 1.2431
Support 2 1.2403
Support 3 1.2380

Gold

The Gold range over the last 24 hours has narrowed to $20 and has been trading between $1150 -$1170. The Gold trade was overshadowed by the heavy declines in Crude Oil price. This could have two potentially opposite effects. Money exiting Crude Oil could move into Gold and strengthen Gold or on the other hand the money exiting Crude cold flow into USD and cause commodities including Gold to weaken further. This week the range on Gold has kept between $1146 an ounce and $1177. The RSI on the weekly chart is at 30.0, indicating that the instrument is oversold. The Gold market is at a critical junction following the break of the key $1180 barrier last month. Further weakness in price below $1130 could lead to forced liquidations, margin calls and panic selling, whereas a sustained move above $1180 and above $1200 could set the trend for a rebound in Gold. The trend and momentum is clearly down although a rebound cannot be ruled out. Gold rose last week to post its first weekly gain in 3 weeks and a second consecutive weekly advance could improve the technical picture and signal a potential rebound correction. Economic data releases this morning in Europe have had a limited impact on the Gold but there is plenty yet to come today both in Europe, UK and particularly in the US.

Gold prices have fallen from $1345 an ounce in August to as low as $1130 in November, erasing $215 from the value of Gold. The $1180 area remains the key to a recovery in Gold which is down from above $1900 in 2011. Gold had advanced from $245 an ounce in 1999 to $1921 in 2011 posting 12 years of straight gains. Now the market has leveled off. Above $1180 the odds of a recovery are improved, whereas as long as the price remains sub $1180 the outlook remains dark.

Support levels for Gold can be seen at $1140, $1130, $1125, $1115, $1100. Resistance to the upside materializes at $118, $1195, $1205, $1215, $1225, $1235, $1240.

Gold 30 Minute Chart

Gold 

Gold 1 Hour Chart

Gold​ 

Gold Pivot Point Table

Gold Levels
Resistance 1 1161.06
Resistance 2 1168.47
Resistance 3 1174.33
Pivot 1155.48
Support 1 1148.20
Support 2 1142.40
Support 3 1135.15