Key Economic Data - Coming Up Today(All Times GMT+3)
The EURUSD was unable to hold on to the gains accumulated in the early part of yesterday's trading session. After rising as high as 1.2500 the pair declined and subsequently retested to 1.2490 level three further times before eventually declining to a low of 1.2420. The current market rate of exchange is at 1.2450. On the upside the EURUSD is targeting a breakout through 1.25 and above the weekly high of 1.2508 whereas to the downside a new low could be reached below 1.2358. Crude Oil is trading at $77.00 a barrel just above the weekly low of $76.50. This morning French CPI came in stronger than anticipated at 0.0% versus expected of -0.1%. Coming up later is the ECB Monthly Bulletin and in the US markets will watch the Unemployment Claims and Jolts Job Opening figures at 12:30 GMT. Following this US Crude Oil Inventories will provide further insight into the demand and supply situation in the US and finally the day ends with the US 30year Bond Auction and the Federal Budget Balance figures. On Friday the French and German Prelim GDP is set to be released. The outcome of the GDP release could shape the Euro trade over the coming weeks. The health of the German and French economies are key to the Euro.
The RSI on the EURUSD Weekly Chart is at 24.9 vs 27.35 yesterday, which is considered oversold and raises the possibility of a near term recovery in the pair. The EURUSD has declined for each of the last 4 months and is lower in November also.
At present the Euro is under pressure with the pair below 1.30 and still trading below the downtrend channel as seen in the H4. As long as the pair remains below 1.30 and below the downtrend channel, the bias remains bearish. - This has been our consistent outlook for two and a half months.
EURUSD Support areas include1.2400, 1.2365, 1.2335, 1.2300, 1.2200, 1.2250. Resistance levels above are at 1.2450, 1.2535, 1.2600, 1.2700, 1.2845, 1.2800, 1.2900.
EURUSD 30 Minute Chart
EURUSD 1 Hour Chart
EURUSD Pivot Point Table
Gold has been bouncing around wildly between $1173 and $1153. The price has risen and fallen in this range four times in the last 18 hours and the price is becoming increasingly volatile and unpredictable. This is a key moment for the price of Gold following the breakdown of the $1180 barrier last month. Any further weakness in price below $1130 could lead to forced liquidations, margin calls and panic selling, whereas a sustained move above $1180 and above $1200 could set the trend for a rebound in Gold. Prices are down over 40% since the peak in 2011 and a sudden violent move higher cannot be ruled out. Overall the trend and momentum is clearly down although this is not a guarantee that it will continue. Gold rose last week to post its first weekly gain in 3 weeks. Major economic data releases tomorrow in Europe with the Advance GDP for Germany , France and the Euro economy as a whole followed by the Retail Sales figures in the US may contribute to defining the next trend in Gold.
Gold prices have fallen from $1345 an ounce in August to as low as $1130 in November, erasing $215 from the value of Gold. The $1180 area remains the key to a recovery in Gold which is down from above $1900 in 2011. Gold had advanced from $245 an ounce in 1999 to $1921 in 2011 posting 12 years of straight gains. Now the market has leveled off. Above $1180 the odds of a recovery are improved, whereas as long as the price remains sub $1180 the outlook remains dark.
Support levels for Gold can be seen at $1140, $1130, $1125, $1115, $1100. Resistance to the upside materializes at $118, $1195, $1205, $1215, $1225, $1235, $1240.
Gold 30 Minute Chart
Gold 1 Hour Chart
Gold Pivot Point Table