Key Economic Data - Coming Up Today(All Times GMT+3)
The EURUSD held above the lows of 1.2215 bouncing back as high as 1.2273 before retesting the Yearly lows at 1.2215 and has fought back to 1.2245 this morning. In order to build a recovery above 1.2300 the pair will benefit by holding above 1.2200 and 1.2215 for the duration of today and at the weekly closing. On the Weekly chart for the pair the RSI came back from a low of 16 in September to rise as high as 31 in October in a failed crossover above the 30 level. The Relative Strength Index then declined to 25 making a higher low before crossing back over 30 on the 1st December this month rising to a high of 36. The RSI has fallen back to 30 as a result of the latest decline in the pair and is threatening to cross back below the 30.0 level. One point of significance is that while the pair has made lower lows the RSI has held up better and is exhibiting a bullish divergence and an uptrend in contrast to the trend in the underlying price of the EURUSD.
This morning French Consumer Spending m/m rose by 0.4% in excess of the 0.2% increase expected by economists. This follows a 0.8% decline in the French data in November. Italian Retail Sales stayed flat at 0.0% disappointing the forecasts of a 0.2% expansion in consumer purchases. Coming up today GBP Current Account and GBP Final GDP as well as BBA Mortgage Approvals and the Index of Services quarterly data. In the afternoon Canadian and United States GDP is set to be released with positive data expected in both countries. For the US the GDP report will be complemented by the Core Durable Goods Orders data, New Home Sales and Personal Spending and Personal Income data. This is the last round of key data for 2014.
EURUSD Support areas include 1.2250, 1.2200, 1.2150, 1.2100, 1.2000. Resistance levels above are at 1.2300, 1.2380, 1.2402, 1.2444, 1.2500.
EURUSD 5 Minute Chart
EURUSD 1 Hour Chart
EURUSD Pivot Point Table
After setting a high on Monday up at $1203.50 the price of Gold slid to $1194 before the price broke sharply to the downside slumping to $1170. Gold has not been this low since the 1st December and this has now changed the overall picture in the Gold trade coming in to the monthly and yearly close. After three weeks of the price action holding strong Gold had been sending out encouraging signals. The latest decline has brought the price within $40 and 3.5% of the Yearly lows. The price action is now increasingly fragile and any further declines will pressure Gold towards the $1150 level. A decline to $1150 brings Gold back to the support level of the recent uptrend. If this level holds it will open up the possibility of a move higher and new highs above $1238 in the recent uptrend. A break below $1146 could be catastrophic for the price of Gold and closing at the lows of the year will set up a downtrend momentum heading into 2015. In addition a Yearly close below $1205 will give Gold a year over year loss. The December opening price for Gold was at $1150 an ounce and following a $55 rally to date in this month $35 dollar have been erased amounting to more than 50% of the gains erased. Economic data in the US this afternoon could define the trend for Gold going into year end as this is the last round of sign cant economic data amongst major economies before 2015.The heating up of geopolitical conflicts with the two most heavily armed countries the US and Russia, and the ongoing battle against ISIS in Syria and in Iraq could help underpin demand for Gold as a safe haven. Plunging oil prices could also have the effect of pressuring Gold lower due to the trend of falling commodity prices, or conversely the shock caused by the 50% decline in Crude Oil in less than a year could spur further Gold purchases as a hedge.
Gold Support areas include $1165, $1150, $1145, $1130, $1115, $1100. Resistance levels above are at $1180, $1195, $1200, $1210, $1221, $1223.50, $1230, $1238, $1245, $1250.
Gold 5 Minute Chart
Gold 1 Hour Chart
Gold Pivot Point Table