Key Economic Data - Coming Up Today(All Times GMT+3)
The EURUSD rose above 1.2500 on Friday following the positive European Union GDP data. Germany avoided a recession by posting 0.1% economic growth for the quarter while the French economy grew at a 0.3% rate in excess of expectations. The GDP for the EU as a whole grew at 0.2% vs 0.1% forecasted. Good Retail Sales figures in the US pushed the pair down to 1.2400 briefly before the EURUSD surged as high as 1.2545 on Friday and to 1.2580 earlier this morning. WTI Crude Oil bounced back to $76.30 from the lows at $73.18 and is now trading at $74.88 a barrel. Gold moved higher from $1150 to $1193 on Friday and this was also a contributing factor to the dollar weakness and euro strength. Today markets await the EU Trade Balance figures and from the US Industrial Production and the Capacity Utilization Rate top the economic data news for today.
The RSI on the EURUSD Weekly Chart is crossing above 30 after rising from as low as at 24.6 last week, which is considered oversold and raises the possibility of a near term recovery in the pair. The EURUSD has declined for each of the last 4 months but this latest move up has put the pair in positive territory for November.
At present the Euro is under pressure with the pair below 1.30 and still trading below the downtrend channel as seen in the H4. As long as the pair remains below 1.30 and below the downtrend channel, the bias remains bearish. - This has been our consistent outlook for three months.
EURUSD Support areas include1.2400, 1.2365, 1.2335, 1.2300, 1.2200, 1.2250. Resistance levels above are at 1.2535, 1.2600, 1.2700, 1.2845, 1.2800, 1.2900.
EURUSD 5 Minute Chart
EURUSD 4 Hour Chart
EURUSD Pivot Point Table
Gold rose through the $1180 resistance area climbing to $1195 an ounce. It was the first time in three weeks that the price of the yellow metal had risen above $1180, which was a key support line broken on the 31st of October 2014. Last week the range had held between $1130 -$1177 before rumors of a favorable Swiss referendum on Gold ignited a move to new two week high. Gold had recently been weighed down by weakness in other commodities such as Crude Oil and the general USD strength. The RSI on the weekly chart bounced off 30.0 to 37.25, reacting perfectly to the signal that the instrument is oversold. As discussed last week a sustained move above $1180 and above $1200 could set the trend for a rebound in Gold. This is Gold's chance to shine. The trend and momentum had been down for the last two weeks and now Gold is threatening to reverse the downtrend. The price of Gold has now risen for two consecutive weeks following two down weeks in a row before this.
Gold prices have fallen from $1345 an ounce in August to as low as $1130 in November, erasing $215 from the value of Gold. The $1180 area remains the key to a recovery in Gold which is down from above $1900 in 2011. Gold had advanced from $245 an ounce in 1999 to $1921 in 2011 posting 12 years of straight gains. Now the market has leveled off. Now the price is above $1180 the odds of a recovery are improved, if the price slips below $1180 the outlook turns bearish.
Support levels for Gold can be seen at $1180, $1160 $1140, $1130, $1125, $1115, $1100. Resistance to the upside materializes at $1195, $1205, $1215, $1225, $1235, $1240.
Gold 5 Minute Chart
Gold 4 Hour Chart
Gold Pivot Point Table