Key Economic Data - Coming Up Today (All Times GMT+3)
The EURUSD has been stuck in a 15 pip range between 1.2700 and 1.2715 for the last 18 hours. The price is generally trading towards the higher end of yesterday's range. The pair has bounced back from a two year low of 1.2500 at the beginning of October. After rebounding the price reached as high as 1.2890. The price at present sits just below the mid-way point between the October high and low.
Poor German Ifo Business Climate data dampened the enthusiasm around the better than expected European Stress Test Results. In the US Flash Services PMI were weak and Pending Home Sales grew but at a lower than expected rate. Overnight Retail Sales in Japan advanced at a much better than expected rate of 2.3% while German Import Prices also showed an increase of 0.3% again a better than anticipated outcome. Coming up in the afternoon are the US Durable Goods Orders and Core Durable Goods Orders. Also in the US is The Case Shiller House Price Index and the CB Consumer Confidence. There is a lot of data for the markets to digest and over the course of the week follow more monetary and economic events particularly from the US.
At present the Euro is under pressure with the pair below 1.30 and still trading below the downtrend channel as seen in the H4. As long as the pair remains below 1.30 and below the downtrend channel, the bias remains bearish. - This has been the outlook for over a month now but the picture is a little more mixed as the pair has re-entered the lower end of the downtrend channel as seen in the H4 Chart. Overall the bias is sill negative for the EURUSD although there is slightly more hope for the bulls now due to the price action of the last three weeks.
EURUSD Support areas include 1.2600 1.2500, 1.2425, 1.2300. Resistance levels above are at 1.2700, 1.2845, 1.2800, 1.2900,1.30 figure level, followed by 1.3165.
EURUSD 1 Hour Chart
EURUSD 4 Hour Chart
Pivot Point Table
Gold has established a well defined range between $1226 on the lower boundary and $1234.25 on the upper boundary since the 23rd of October. The pair is largely range bound except for a brief decline to $1223 which quickly corrected back into the range. The price is hovering approximately $50 above the key $1180 support line. Gold had declined 6% in September and is up 5% from the lows. At present with several factors weighing on the Gold trade and the demand for investments into hard assets, Asian physical buying is underpinning the market. Low global inflation and the end of stimulus in the US are two negative elements for rising Gold prices. At the same time the stress in the European economy and a global slowdown could push investors to use Gold as a hedge and a safe haven. Additionally the low inflation rate can be seen as a positive in terms of the fact that inflation is expected to rise, which typically boosts the value of Gold.
Gold has rebounded from the major support line at $1180 and bounced back as high as $1255. Now we await the price action to see if we will retest the lower support. If the price can be contained above $1180 the bias is bullish. Below $1180 the bias is strongly bearish.
Support levels for Gold can be seen at $1220, $1210, $1200 and $1190 and $1180. Resistance to the upside materializes at $1235, $1240, $1250, $1260, $1275.
Gold Hourly Chart
Gold 4 Hour Chart
Gold Pivot Table