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Key Economic Data


On Friday the EURUSD generally benefitted from the release of the US Employment data. As the data was released there was volatility with the pair both rising and then declining several times before eventually heading higher and rising to 1.2480 from as low as 1.2362 in the early stages after the release. The Non Farm Payrolls number disappointed investors as the headline figure came in below expectations, 21.000 less than forecast. On the other hand the US Unemployment Rate declined from 5.9% to 5.8% in spite of the less than hoped for increase in the labor force. Today markets await the Industrial Production figures for Italy as well at the Sentix Investor Confidence for the EUR. Today there is no data on the US Dollar. The RSI on the Weekly Chart is at 25, which is considered oversold and raises the possibility of a near term recovery in the pair. The EURUSD has declined for each of the last 4 months and is lower in November also.

At present the Euro is under pressure with the pair below 1.30 and still trading below the downtrend channel as seen in the H4. As long as the pair remains below 1.30 and below the downtrend channel, the bias remains bearish. - This has been our consistent outlook for two and a half months.

EURUSD Support areas include1.2450, 1.2415 1.2365, 1.2335, 1.2300, 1.2200, 1.2250. Resistance levels above are at 1.2450, 1.2535, 1.2600, 1.2700, 1.2845, 1.2800, 1.2900.

EURUSD 5 Minute Chart


EURUSD 4 Hour Chart


EURUSD Pivot Point Table

Resistance 1 1.2489
Resistance 2 1.2507
Resistance 3 1.2526
Pivot 1.2470
Support 1 1.2452
Support 2 1.2433
Support 3 1.2415


Gold moved higher post US NFP to post a session high of $1178 an ounce. Gold made a bullish engulfing candle on the daily for Friday and posted its first weekly gain in 3 weeks. The yellow metal is approaching the key $1180 resistance line and an upside breach could reinstate a bullish tone. Friday's price gains helped break the range between $1130 and $1150 held to for most of last week. Gold closed the week with a $12 gain after being lower by as much as $50 at one stage. Gold prices have slumped from $1345 an ounce in August, and were down by more than $200 prior to this latest rebound. We have been noting that Gold and Silver were both technically oversold with the RSI indicator reading at around 19.8, whilst at same time the USD has been technically overbought esp versus the JPY with an RSI of 81.43 on the Daily Chart and the same applies to the EUR with the Dollar being overbought as per the RSI. The combination of an overbought USD and oversold precious metals could lead to a leg higher in Gold over coming months. The $1180 area remains vital. Above $1180 the odds of a recovery are improved, whereas as long as the price remains sub $1180 the outlook remains dark.

Support levels for Gold can be seen at $1140, $1130, $1125, $1115, $1100. Resistance to the upside materializes at $1118, $1195, $1205, $1215, $1225, $1235, $1240.

Gold 5 Minute Chart


Gold 4 Hour Chart

Gold Pivot Point Table
Gold Levels
Resistance 1 1177.23
Resistance 2 1181.56
Resistance 3 1185.97
Pivot 1172.76
Support 1 1168.25
Support 2 1163.98
Support 3 1159.43