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Economic Calendar

EURUSD

The EURUSD recovered overnight from a new year one year low on Friday at 1.2820, to touch 1.2870. The pair is now back to 1.2850. As long as the price holds above the low of 1.2822 we may see a correction phase in the EURUSD. A breach of the 1.2822 and a new low will signal a continuation of the downtrend. This is an instance where trades can be made within an existing range. Also just below 1.2900 there could be good sell interest with stops at or around 1.2900. In classic fx trading, the safest way to go short and test that resistance level is to have stops inside not outside the range and resistance level, i.e. at 1.2898-1.2902 otherwise the resistance is broken.

In Binary Options if you wish to speculate on a lower price for the EURUSD at or around the 1.2880-1.2900 area, while using a conservative approach, you would have to take Down Options when the price approaches 1.2900, but once the price goes above 1.2905 you would no longer open or initiate Down options. This does not mean that the price cannot go to 1.2910 or 1.2925 and then return south. Simply it is a lower probability and it is trading outside the range in contrast to inside. Inside the range is familiar and 'safer' whereas venturing outside is a different and slightly more aggressive approach. At present the Euro is under pressure with the pair below 1.30 and still trading below the downtrend channel. As long as the pair remains below 1.30 and below the downtrend channel, the bias remains bearish.

EURUSD Support areas include 1.2900, 1.2867, 1.2800, 1.2745 followed by a key support at 1.2550. Resistance levels above are at 1.2959, 1.30 figure level, followed by 1.3165.

EURUSD H4 Chart

EURUSD

EURUSD 30 Min Chart

EURUSD
 

GBPUSD

The GBPUSD is trading at 1.6340 after reaching as high as 1.6367. On Friday the cable moved up to 1.6520 from 1.6380 and subsequently declined all the way to 1.6276. We have bounced up from this level this morning and await to see what the reaction of the Sterling pound is to the ongoing developments with Scotland and the current strong US dollar rally in the market. The pair is now up from to the lows of 1.6060 made last week and the outlook is mixed. After managing to hold up well last week due to the positive boost from the No vote in the referendum, a slight easing off by the USD could help this pair reach back over 1.6500. The USD has been on a tear against especially the YEN, EUR and AUD.

GBPUSD support areas include 1.6300, 1.6250, 1.6150, 1.6100, 1.6000, 1.5900, and 1.5850. Resistance levels and upside targets at 1.6365 and 1.6500, 1.6600, 1.6750.

GBPUSD 15 Min Chart

GBPUSD

Gold

Gold has sunk to $1210 this morning and continues to be pressured by a stronger US Dollar. The growing expectation that US interest rates will rise and the expectation that this will lead to a normalization of interest rates and yields across the global economy has changed the dynamics of the Gold trade. There are still supportive factors for Gold. Such as the enormous amounts of stimulus and money printing that have taken place for the last 7 years to weather the economic crises. The political and geopolitical turbulence in the World, and the 0.05% ECB interest rate in Europe and economic fears in Europe help support money flows into the safe haven of Gold. But the Gold trade needs to be seen in context. Gold has risen from $240 an ounce in 1999 and reached as high as $1920 in 2011.

The price is at a historically elevated level in nominal terms (i.e. not inflation adjusted). And potentially the changing interest rate environment and a return to 'normal' economic growth in most of the world could be enough to really take the wind out of Gold's sails. This holds weight given no extraordinary military conflicts in the meantime which Gold could be sensitive too. On the other side of the trade we have seen a 30% decline in the price of Gold and this could spur an aggressive rebound.

Support levels for Gold can be seen at $1200, $1150, $1100, $1050, $1000. Resistance to the upside at $1235, $1250, $1275, $1300, $1325, $1350.

Gold 15 Min Chart

GOLD