U.S. major Indices have broken their accelerated trends and were hardly sold off. But I don't think this is the end, as price is still above its macro trend. If you take a look at S&P, point to make adjustments was around $1.954. Now, we heave more defined lower range and I think we may see a deeper correction to more reasonable support levels of $1.892. And maybe to 200 EMA at $1.856, but we will measure it on daily basis.
European shares suffered more losses this week with tensions in Ukraine and Iraq weighing on sentiment.
Russia hit back against Western sanctions on Thursday by confirming that it will ban imports of fruits, vegetables, meat, fish, milk and dairy products from the U.S., European Union, Australia, Canada and Norway. In addition to simmering geopolitical tensions, traders have also cited concerns over the raising of interest rates by the U.S. Federal Reserve with the central bank set to give more details on its strategy in the next few months. In Europe, there has also been heavy selling in some of the periphery's banking stocks.
Technically USD/RUB came into play after the new portion of sanctions was announced against Russia. In February 2014, currency pair broke up major resistance level at 33.50 and had nice follow through to 37.00. During this period of mark-up it was nicely controlled and followed by 8 and 21 EMAs. In April price entered into consolidation, after it dropped its 8 and 21 first time since break up. Break down of this range leads to a move lower to 200 EMA. Bear chanel was created with series of lower highs and lower lows. But after price bounced off from support 33.50 which acted like resistance earlier, then broke up this chanel, regained all key moving averages. Since then traders have plenty of opportunities with bull flags set-ups, break out trades and support bounces. Some digestion above 8/21 EMAs before breaking up resistance zone at 36.69-36.95 will be healthy to see for both buyers and sellers. Those assets when fundamentals and technicals join together give traders best set-ups with high-winning probability.
During this phase of corrective activity, look for stocks that show us relative strength and when indices will find its footing then buying could resume in those strong names.
Facebook is one of the strongest names on the market after positive earnings report. Next potential buying area at $71 where 21 EMA is situated, then $68 previous breakout point could be buyable if overall correction will continue. Break up of short term downtrend (orange zone) could attract more active buyers and will open doors to $76-$77.
AUD/USD is heading lower to major support around 0.92000 on bad unemployment data from Australia. Untill this pair finds its footing, consider tactical Put options opportunities.
Gold continues to act chaotic as it stays in the mid of macro wedge pattern which tells us about indecision. But with recent price action bulls try to take control. If it holds above short term moving averages 8/21 it will keep traders attention and we will see up side follow through with mid term target to $1,339.
Next week important events calendar: Aug 11 - Aug 15
EUR German ZEW Economic Sentiment
CNY Industrial Production
GBP Unemployment Rate
GBP BOE Inflation Report
USD Core Retail Sales
NZD Retail Sales
USD Unemployment Claims
GBP Second Estimates GDP
USD Prelim Consumer Sentiment