The report detailing the level of sales to consumers in the United States for the month of September 2013 are set to be released tomorrow 29 October 2013. At this time, many experts believe that the figures for the report may show a decline from the levels of the previous month. That said, they do not believe that the numbers will likely show a significant loss.
Readers are reminded of the importance of this report as it relates to spending on consumer goods, which is estimated to comprise nearly a third of all US spending. As such, changes to this rate have shown in the past to have a significant impact on the market.
Analysts note that the experts’ estimations for this upcoming report may be heavily based on the recent job numbers which have shown lower than expected growth over the previous month wherein only 148k workers rejoined the workforce, far below the expected 190k range.
However, despite the predictions of lower numbers for the September report, analysts believe that with the Christmas season around the corner, with shopping for the holidays generally starting in early November, sales should be expected to pick up soon.
In the meantime, analysts believe that the USD will likely continue to suffer hardship as investor confidence in the dollar remains low. Analysts note that the retail sales numbers can also be taken as a snapshot for consumer confidence, as Americans are less likely to increase their spending on goods if they do not believe that their income will remain stable for the near future. While this report is less relied upon than that of the Durable Goods report, it can still be considered to be an indicator on this front. Analysts remind readers that this report can often be volatile in its figures as it is one of the more timely reports covering the issue, meaning that it can be fraught with revisions following its release.
Traders are advised to proceed with caution in their trading of the USD against its rival currencies in the coming days due to the issuance of this report along with other significant ones expected to come out this week affecting the American monetary policy.
American Consumer Confidence Numbers to Come Out on 29 October 2013
Following a period of tumult in the American economy with the battle over healthcare and the debt between Democrats and Republicans, the report concerning the levels of Consumer Confidence for the month of October is set to be issued tomorrow, 29 October 2013. Many experts in the field are currently expecting to witness a drop in confidence in comparison with the previous month’s report.
Analysts cite the slowed job growth and the recent political crisis as potential factors for the expected drop in consumer confidence. As noted above, should consumers feel less confident in their job security and or see the costs of living rise incongruently to their income, then they may express less confidence in the economy. If the consumer confidence is lowered, then it will likely have wider implications on other metrics, including on Advance Retail Sales and especially those of Durable Goods.
Analysts note that the challenge will be primarily focused on ramping up consumer confidence in the lead up to the Christmas shopping season when retailers will be dependent on increased sales to bolster their annual revenues.
In the meanwhile, analysts assess that a significant drop in consumer confidence could further perturb investors who are already wary of the weakened US dollar. As such, this report may prove to add volatility against the USD over the coming week.
German Employment Figures to be Released Wednesday
The numbers for the German employment situation are set to be issued later this week on Wednesday 30 October 2013. The report will cover the figures for the month of October 2013. At this time, many experts believe that the report will show a drop in the number of jobs added during the current month. That said, they do not believe that there will be any significant change to the overall rate of unemployment.
Analysts remind readers that Germany comprises the Eurozone’s largest economy. As such, changes in the German jobs and manufacturing markets have been known to reverberate throughout the economic union. Should the report indeed show that the economy has failed to continue to add new members to the workforce, it may have an impact on the monetary union’s shared currency, the euro.
Analysts note that the German, along with the French economies have been instrumental in helping to push the recovery efforts across the Eurozone. Moreover, countries like Germany have been key in propping up the weaker member states such as Portugal, Spain, and Greece which have become dependent on German backed assistance to remain as viable, functioning states. If the German recovery should show signs of faltering, this aid may find itself under threat, and it could add further damage to the euro.
Investors are advised to proceed with caution when trading the euro against its rival currencies over the course of the coming week.