The two major American reports relating to the state of employment during the month of January 2014 are set to be issued tomorrow Friday 7 February 2014. The release will include the Change in Non-Farm Payrolls and the Unemployment Rate. At this time, many experts are expecting to see no changes in the Unemployment Rate. In regards to the actual number of jobs added to the workforce, the predictions have been varied by different economists.
Analysts note that there were fewer jobs added in the month of December 2013 than in the month before it, which saw a significant bump in employment. It was this spike in the number of jobs created that helped to push the Federal Reserve to begin tapering off their spending in the stimulus. As for January, some experts have expressed pessimism for the upcoming reports, believing that the number will come in far below the expected number. Perhaps supporting this claim of fewer jobs being created are reports of a potential slowdown as seen in the significant drop in the Institute of Supply Managements monthly report that came out on Monday 3 February 2014.
While the signs of a slowdown and speculation over the number of jobs being added are compelling, analysts point to the fact that the Federal Reserve still moved to cut an additional $10 billion from the stimulus package, intimating that they have confidence in the ability of the US economy to become more independent.
Traders are advised to watch for fluctuations in the trading of the US dollar in the lead up to and follow the release of these reports. The reverberations of these numbers will also likely be felt in the trading of commodities such as gold and oil, as well as on emerging market currencies.
Canadian Jobs Numbers to Come Out Friday
Following their neighbor to the south, Canada is set to release its own employment data for January 2014 on Friday 7 February 2014. Their reports will relate to the Unemployment Rate as well as the Net Change in Employment. At this time, there do not appear to be any concrete predictions as to which direction the reports will likely lead on the job market.
Analysts note that the loonie has faced difficulties in recent weeks, and the previous reports on employment have been fairly negative. With unemployment higher than the desired goal point during the month of December 2013, the Canadian job market is facing an uphill battle for the January 2014 numbers.
Analysts have not seen any indications that the situation has improved during the month of January that would lead analysts to foresee any major shifts job market. Add on top of that the fact that oil prices have been constantly shifting, and the market is presented with increased instability that is ill attuned for job growth.
Analysts recommend that traders watch for further volatility following the release of these reports.
Gold Falters Against Silver After Week High
It was reported on 6 February 2014 that gold trading had fallen against the cheaper silver as the latter made extended gains in the market. Analysts note that there has been increased demand for precious metals following the drop in prices which had affected them towards the end of 2013 and the beginning of this year.
Analysts point to the fact that many investors are concerned over the upcoming US job numbers which are expected out tomorrow. Should their prediction prove to be correct and the reports show that fewer jobs were added than expected, it will likely push many investors towards gold as a haven investment.
That said, analysts have noted some movement by investors to reinvest in the currencies of emerging markets as has been seen in recent days. While many investors had already begun moving their money out of areas such as South East Asia and South America, damaging the economies there, these markets are apparently becoming more attractive.
Should the US employment data point to a slowed pace of job growth, traders should expect to see a rise in the value of precious metal trading in the coming days.