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Key Economic Data

EURUSD

The EURUSD fell dramatically yesterday during the ECB Press Conference by Mario Draghi. At the start of the Conference the pair was trading at 1.2530 and fell to 1.2394 within 10 minutes, a decline of 136 pips. The pair then continued to decline throughout the US session and reached a new low of 1.2364. The down move created a new two year at replacing the previous level of 1.2439. The USD also made significant gains against the GBP, JPY, CAD, CHF and AUD, as well as advancing against Gold and also to a lesser extent versus Crude Oil. The current price in the market is 1.2392. Both the EUR and the GBP Central Bank interest rates remained unchanged at yesterday's meetings. Earlier this morning the German Industrial Production was weaker than market expectations whilst the German Trade Balance exceeded forecasts with an 18.5B surplus. Coming up today is eagerly awaited US NFP and US Unemployment Rate. These are high impact releases that can create fluctuations and trends in the days leading up to the report as well as during and after the release.

The technical picture for the EURUSD is weak, as seen on the H1, the blue rising trendline for the pair has been broken in devastating fashion. This ends the hopes for the EURUSD targeting a move beyond 1.2890 and within range of the key 1.30 level. At present the Euro is under pressure with the pair below 1.30 and still trading below the downtrend channel as seen in the H4. As long as the pair remains below 1.30 and below the downtrend channel, the bias remains bearish. - This has been our consistent outlook for two months.

EURUSD Support areas include 1.2365, 1.2335, 1.2300, 1.2200, 1.2250. Resistance levels above are at 1.2450, 1.2535, 1.2600, 1.2700, 1.2845, 1.2800, 1.2900.

EURUSD 15 Minute Chart

EURUSD

EURUSD 1 Hour Chart

EURUSD 

EURUSD Pivot Point Table

EURUSD Levels
Resistance 1 1.2405
Resistance 2 1.2414
Resistance 3 1.2433
Pivot 1.2386
Support 1 1.2377
Support 2 1.2358
Support 3 1.2349

Gold

Gold held to the range between $1138 and $1150 an ounce all of yesterday. This morning the price suddenly snapped through the lower boundary at $1138 which was also the 4-year low and hit $1130.02 within seconds. From this new low the price fought its way back to reach $1146.71 before settling for the time being around $1141.50. The stimulus announced through the covered bond purchases and asset backed security purchase program by the ECB was unable to move the Gold price significantly and now comes the test of the US NFP and Unemployment Rate this afternoon. Gold has fallen from high to low this week so far $50. We have noted for several days that once Gold had fallen below the $1180 level and stayed below this level, the technical picture was weak for Gold. Gold prices have slumped from $1345 an ounce in August to just above $1100 today, declining 15% in a matter of months. Technically Gold and Silver are both oversold with the RSI indicator reading at around 19.8, at the same time the USD is technically overbought esp versus the JPY with an RSI of 81.43 on the Daily Chart and the same applies to the EUR with the Dollar being overbought as per the RSI.

This is the last trading day of the week and today's price action as well as close price could have an effect on the opening and direction next week.

Support levels for Gold can be seen at $1140, $1130, $1125, $1115, $1100. Resistance to the upside materializes at $118, $1195, $1205, $1215, $1225, $1235, $1240.

Gold 15 Minute Chart

Gold 

Gold 1 Hour Chart

Gold
Gold Pivot Point Table
Gold Levels
Resistance 1 1148.37
Resistance 2 1154.90
Resistance 3 1164.19
Pivot 1139.26
Support 1 1132.87
Support 2 1123.57
Support 3 1117.17