Amazing potential high liquidity in the markets following multiple messages at the forefront of European American and Canadian markets.
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US to Release Jobs Figures for November on Friday
Two important reports detailing the current situation of employment in the United States are slated to be issued tomorrow Friday 6 December 2013. These reports include the Change in Non-Farm Payrolls and the Unemployment report for the month of November 2013. At this time, many experts believe that the overall rate of unemployment will likely fall slightly, and a significant number of jobs added to the workforce.
Analysts note that with the exception of the month of September that saw a massive drop in the number of jobs added, there has been a steady rise in job creation over the past few months, showing signs that the US is making significant progress in its recovery from the recession. While some experts believe that the job growth may just return to the rates seen over the average of the past few months, analysts note that the report from last month for October came in way above their predictions, perhaps indicating that the numbers could spike even higher. Moreover, with the onset of the Christmas shopping season, business owners are likely scrambling to find additional employees to help them get through the high pressure period. As there is traditionally higher levels of spending by consumers, it allows for the increased hirings, thus pushing up the job numbers. While the Non-Farm Payrolls report is supposed to be less vulnerable to seasonal shifts by excluding farm workers, analysts note that it is still subject to anomalies such as the holiday buying frenzy.
Analysts also note that as the Unemployment rate decreases, speculation concerning the Federal Reserve`s policy on their $85 billion stimulus program will likely increase exponentially. As has been noted in past reports, the Federal Open Market Committee which is in charge of regulating the quantitative easing measures has stated that they would need to see positive changes to the jobs figures before they could seriously consider making cuts. Analysts point to their concerns that unless the level of employment rises significantly, then there is an increased probability that the growth achieved under the stimulus could falter and the economy would be unable to stand on its own. Therefore, should this month`s report see any considerable changes to this key metric, then many investors may decide to take steps to take advantage of any future steps that the Fed may take on the stimulus.
Should a drop in the level of unemployment become evident in this report, and the number of jobs added over last month indeed be high, traders should expect to see a rise in the value of the dollar in trading. As such, investors are advised to watch for additional volatility for the USD in the coming days following the release of the report.
Canada to Issue Employment Statistics Tomorrow
Following their neighbor to the south, Canada is expected to release their own Change in Employment and Unemployment Rate reports for November on Friday 6 December 2013. At this time, many experts do not believe that the report will show any major changes to the job figures in comparison with those released during the previous month. That said, while they have stated that there is a low likelihood that the overall unemployment rate will see any shifts, they have predicted that there could be some minor progress in the addition of jobs to the workforce.
Analysts note that the month of November was not particularly kind to the loonie. Due losses on the price of crude, Canada`s largest export, the currency fell in value. With prices of the fuel unlikely to rise significantly in the coming weeks, it is unlikely that the Canadian economy will be able to make meaningful progress on their employment numbers. Traders are advised that if improvement in the job market is not seen in the coming months, it may spur the central bank to make changes to the interest rates.
Analysts do not believe that the release of these reports will have any measurable impact on the loonie in trading. That said, improvements in the American economy will likely have an effect on the Canadian currency due to the close trading relationship between the two counties.
University of Michigan Confidence Report Expected Out on 6 December
The University of Michigan`s Consumer Confidence report for the month of December is set to be issued tomorrow 6 December 2013. At this time, the report is expected to show a rise in the level of confidence by the American public in the state of their economy.
Analysts remind readers that the U of Michigan report is widely considered to be one of the primary indicators of consumer satisfaction in the US, despite its smaller data sample, partially for its fast turnaround times for time sensitive information.
Analysts believe that the rise in the levels of confidence, should the predictions prove to be accurate can be traced to the increased level of job security felt by many Americans. As the number of hirings increase, and more opportunities become available, then consumers will feel more comfortable to spend and be active members in the economy.
Should there in fact be a rise in the level of confidence shown in the report, perhaps along with positive job numbers from the Unemployment Rate and Non-Farm Payrolls, then traders can expect to see an increased demand for the USD in trading.