Key Economic Data - Coming Up Today(All Times GMT+3)
The EURUSD held firm above 1.2500 and is now at 1.2544. Although the EUR held up well, the USD advanced to a new high versus the JPY and advanced against the GBP, AUD and CAD. The range on the pair this week has been between 1.2443 - 1.2580. The EURUSD has recently bounced off a two-year low level of 1.2358 and is now 1.5% higher. The pair is now targeting the October high at 1.2883 and then the key 1.30 level. The pair has been below the key 1.30 level for eight consecutive weeks. WTI Crude Oil slumped below $74 this morning after falling from $76.25 during yesterday's US session. Gold has stayed firm after breaking above $1200 for the first time in three weeks. This morning fx markets await the EUR Current Account data and in the afternoon in the US Building Permits, Housing Starts and Crude Oil Inventories will likely affect markets. And all eyes will be focused on the FOMC Meeting Minutes at 18:00 GMT this evening. This event can often cause volatility in fx, stocks and commodities markets.
The RSI on the EURUSD Weekly Chart is now at 29.94. A reading of 30 on the RSI is considered oversold and raises the possibility of a near term recovery in the pair. The EURUSD has declined for each of the last 4 months but this latest move up has put the pair in positive territory for November.
At present the Euro is under pressure with the pair below 1.30 and still trading below the downtrend channel as seen in the H4. As long as the pair remains below 1.30 and below the downtrend channel, the bias remains bearish. - This has been our consistent outlook for three months. The pair has been below the key 1.30 level for eight consecutive weeks. EURUSD Support areas include 1.2475 1.2400, 1.2365, 1.2335, 1.2300, 1.2200, 1.2250. Resistance levels above are at 1.2580, 1.2600, 1.2700, 1.2845, 1.2800, 1.2900.
EURUSD 5 Minute Chart
EURUSD 4 Hour Chart
EURUSD Pivot Point Table
Gold has advanced above $1204 and has since been ranging between $1193 an ounce and $1204. While the USD has moved higher against most currencies in the last 24 hrs and also against Crude Oil, Gold and the EURUSD have maintained a bullish bias and are holding towards the top of the range. The current price of Gold is $1198.81. Gold has risen 6% from low to high this month after advancing from a low $1130 earlier this month. Gold remains in a longer term downtrend and is 37% lower than the $1921 record set in 2011. After breaking above $1200 for the first time in three weeks, Gold has been firm and has been consolidating towards the upper end of the range. Holding above $1180 is important is important to maintain a bullish momentum. While a move below $1180 would be a clear sell signal from a technical viewpoint. A rising interest rate outlook in the US and in the global economy has weighed on Gold in recent months as well as the USD strength.The RSI on the weekly chart has risen through 30.0 and reached 40, based on this indicator there could be further upside during this rally. Gold could rise aggressively as a correction process following a strong downtrend over recent months. Today the FOMC is a risk event for Gold traders.
Gold prices have fallen from $1345 an ounce in August to as low as $1130 in November, erasing $215 from the value of Gold. The $1180 area remains the key to a recovery in Gold which is down from above $1900 in 2011. Gold had advanced from $245 an ounce in 1999 to $1921 in 2011 posting 12 years of straight gains. Now the market has leveled off. Now the price is above $1180 the odds of a recovery are improved, if the price slips below $1180 the outlook turns bearish. The price of Gold has now risen for two consecutive weeks following two down weeks in a row before this.
Support levels for Gold can be seen at $1180, $1160 $1140, $1130, $1125, $1115, $1100. Resistance to the upside materializes at $1195, $1205, $1215, $1225, $1235, $1240.
Gold 5 Minute Chart
Gold 4 Hour Chart
Gold Pivot Point Table