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Key Economic Data

EURUSD

The EURUSD fell below 1.2500 yesterday afternoon. The pair had briefly held above 1.2500 at the start of the week before breaking lower and reaching 1.2443. We are now off the lows and back up to 1.2493. So far this week the EURUSD has a high price of 1.2580 and a low of 1.2443. The EURUSD has a two-year low level at 1.2358 and we are 1% above the lows, while the October high is at 1.2883 just below 1.30. The pair has been below the key 1.30 level for eight consecutive weeks. WTI Crude Oil has consolidated for now in the $75-$76 range. Gold has stayed at the upper end of the range is targeting $1200 after reaching $1198.50 an ounce. The gold price is now at $1196.30. The USDJPY has risen to 116.86 and is just short of the 6 year high at 117.06 made yesterday.

The RSI on the EURUSD Weekly Chart has crssed back below 30 after rising through the 30 area yesterday. A reading of 30 on the RSI is considered oversold and raises the possibility of a near term recovery in the pair. The EURUSD has declined for each of the last 4 months but this latest move up has put the pair in positive territory for November.

At present the Euro is under pressure with the pair below 1.30 and still trading below the downtrend channel as seen in the H4. As long as the pair remains below 1.30 and below the downtrend channel, the bias remains bearish. - This has been our consistent outlook for three months.

EURUSD Support areas include 1.2400, 1.2365, 1.2335, 1.2300, 1.2200, 1.2250. Resistance levels above are at 1.2535, 1.2600, 1.2700, 1.2845, 1.2800, 1.2900.

EURUSD 5 Minute Chart

EURUSD

EURUSD 4 Hour Chart

EURUSD

EURUSD Pivot Point Table

EURUSD Levels
Resistance 1 1.2509
Resistance 2 1.2527
Resistance 3 1.2556
Pivot 1.2478
Support 1 1.2458
Support 2 1.2430
Support 3 1.2411

Gold

After rising through $1180 the Gold has stayed above key the level. The price is now $1197 and is targeting the $1200. Since appreciating from $1130 earlier this month Gold has risen 5.3% in two weeks. Gold is still down 37.5% from the 2011 all-time highs and if a recovery follows the price gains could be swift and sharp. After breaking above $1180 for the first time in three weeks the reaction has been positive and the volatility seen over the last few weeks has died down. Last week the range had held between $1130 -$1177 and so far this week we are clear of the range. Holding above $1180 is important. a move below $1180 could trigger sharp declines in a worst case scenario for Gold bulls. Gold had suffered over recent months as the US Dollar rally had hit commodities and currencies. The Yen, Russian Ruble, Brazilian Real, CAD, AUD and most resource based currencies have suffered the most and Gold was no exception. It remains to be seen if the declines in Gold were overdone or warranted by the market climate. The RSI on the weekly chart bounced off 30.0 to 37.25 yesterday and is now up 39.5, reacting perfectly to the signal that the instrument is oversold. Gold is threatening to reverse the downtrend after the momentum had been down for the last two weeks. The price of Gold has now risen for two consecutive weeks following two down weeks in a row before this.

Gold prices have fallen from $1345 an ounce in August to as low as $1130 in November, erasing $215 from the value of Gold. The $1180 area remains the key to a recovery in Gold which is down from above $1900 in 2011. Gold had advanced from $245 an ounce in 1999 to $1921 in 2011 posting 12 years of straight gains. Now the market has leveled off. Now the price is above $1180 the odds of a recovery are improved, if the price slips below $1180 the outlook turns bearish.

Support levels for Gold can be seen at $1180, $1160 $1140, $1130, $1125, $1115, $1100. Resistance to the upside materializes at $1195, $1205, $1215, $1225, $1235, $1240.

Gold 5 Minute Chart

Gold

Gold 4 Hour Chart

Gold

Gold Pivot Point Table

Gold Levels
Resistance 1 1203.04
Resistance 2 1208.59
Resistance 3 1218.72
Pivot 1193.34
Support 1 1187.02
Support 2 1177.03
Support 3 1172.57