High Impact Economic Data for the upcoming week (All Times GMT+2)
Week Ahead - Jan 4 - 10
The year gets off to a bang with a heavy schedule of economic data coming up this week. The main talking point for the next three weeks is likely to be the Greek elections with a significant possibility that Greece could exit the European Union or at least initiate changes in its bailout program with a shift from austerity to growth.
On Monday German Prelim CPI and Construction PMI in the UK start off the week in Europe. European inflation is key concern at this stage and there will be extra focus on the German data. Construction has led the way in the UK economic recovery and this data point will provide an update of the industry. On Tuesday the Australian Trade Balance is expected to show a wider trade deficit than last month rising to 1.59B. GBP Services PMI and ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI in the US conclude the data for Tuesday. First up on Wednesday the CPI Flash Estimate y/y reading for the EUR expected to show stagnation with the inflation rate at 0.0% for 2014. US ADP Non-Farm Employment Change will provide an early insight into Friday's government data and 227 000 jobs added is the forecast. Canada is set to post a 200 million USD trade deficit and the US trade deficit is set to shrink to $42.3 billion monthly (an annual deficit of $500Billion). At 19:00 GMT the FOMC Meeting Minutes will be released to markets revealing the discussion of the federal open committee's monetary policy discussions. On Thursday the Bank of England meets to decide on interest rates while markets expect rates to stay on hold. On Friday overnight AUD retail sales and Chinese inflation will attract the attention of global investors before focus shifts to the Employment data in the US with the NFP Employment change and the Unemployment Rate. The health of the US labor market is central to the growth of the US economy and is a key metric followed by investors across the world. Canadian employment data is released at the same time although outside of the Canadian currency and stock market this is of less importance than the US data.
Crude Oil Weekly Chart
EUR/USD 5 Minute Chart
EUR/USD Daily Chart
Events to Watch this Week
The main factors that will affect the fx markets and trends next week will be the:
- EURUSD hit 1.1867, a nine year low and is under severe pressure. Lots of attention will be on the Greek election and success by Syriza is the main cause of concern for the EU currency.
- Crude Oil has reached as low as $51.40 and is nearing the $50 support level. With panic in fx markets and the euro under pressure Crude Oil could be set for volatility with he potential for a break below $50 or a move up towards $60.