World markets have closed indefinably. US indexes fell down at the beginning of the day, but were bought up in the second half of it. S&P has closed strongly at the top and set up a new maximum. Index has never fallen lower than 50 EMA and has grown for 43 points since 21 May and broken through the consolidation, which was developing since the beginning of the year. After the two days rest it kept slowly growing up. It’s very important to have a plan with rates and their time of entering the game. Then we can make our corrections and make decisions. The first support is 8 EMA $1917, important rate $1900 which used to act like resistance and coincidentally there is 21 EMA. The top is $1928.63.
Asia closed in the black again — Shanghai Index +0.80%.
All the attention of markets is paid to ECB meeting today. At the last press conference Mario Draghi promised he would take actions. The question is — what exactly are the actions he is to take. There are few possible variants: to lower the main interest rate from 0.25% to 0.15%, to lower deposit rate from 0% to -0.1%. Private sector crediting may appear to be one of the wide scale stimulus. There is a possibility of another round of quantitative easing. Euro reaction may be determined because all these expectations are already in the price.
EUR/USD after the false breakthrough of 1.39500 has closed with a wide candle at the bottom. The next day it has broken through 50 EMA which was a support for some time, this is one more point where we should adapt to changes of the market. Trend line breakthrough on May 13 may be considered as another confirmation. EUR/USD varies in the area of 8 and 200 EMA, now it’s waiting for a catalyst for further movement. The first scenario: continuation of the 1.35850 support breakthrough movement. The second scenario (which I prefer more): 1.35950 resistance breakthrough with a possibility of potential roll back to 21 EMA 1.36680, the next resistance — 1.37200 — trend breakthrough point and 50/100 EMA.
GBP/USD has grown up yesterday thanks to good news. Price index for the services sector appeared to be higher than analysts' expectations. This is the example of a trading idea when trader has to adapt to changing sentiments. You should follow the plan only in case if the idea is confirmed by the price. I’ve marked all plan correcting rates on the chart. First, there was a reversal green candle near to the support rate, but then the price has closed with a big inflame candle higher than 8/21 EMA. The last chance for sellers was when the price reached potential resistance rate (previous bottom 1.67300), but this rate hasn’t been confirmed. On a daily chart now the pair has reached potential resistance (8 EMA at 1.67590), but buyers have won at 15 minutes time interval. I’ll wait for a buying weakening and put options after the price confirmation.
USD/JPY is showing me some strong signals of a middle term trend changes. The price removed a double top in the 102.750 area. It has lost middle term 8/21 EMA and is building a bear flag now against the 102.450 support. I’ll be looking for put signals while waiting for this rate breakthrough with potential downtrend continuation.
Gold has found a bottom, support is $1241. Yesterday it tried to build a top base with $1244 support and broken through a $1247 resistance. But it hasn’t got a positive continuation because of sentiment changes related to US news. I’ll be looking for tips for an early entry, before the consolidation is resolved.
Apple didn’t surprise investors with some new inventions during the iOS8 presentation. On a daily chart it fell to 8 EMA about $622, jumped off it and broke through a downtrend range. The breakthrough of $637.50 and $644.17 top has led it to a new top — $647.89. Before the earnings report which took place at the end of May, Apple shares were traded $520 per one share. We can see a great growth and a lot of trading opportunities.