Fundamental Analysis

Dollar Rises Despite Retail Sales Data – Focus on Trade Talks and UK Retail Sales

Published on 2019-02-15 11:03 Share
US Dollar

US dollar attempted a minor bounce across its main competitors in Friday’s early trading, despite the U.S. Commerce Department reported on Thursday that U.S. retail sales fell for the first time in ten months in December. Also, the appetite for risk assets was dented by dismal Chinese inflation figures and a lack of progress on the US-China trade front. Most majors traded on the back foot, with USD/JPY extending its overnight bearish momentum and hitting a fresh three-day low at 110.27 levels. EUR/USD still holds below 1.1300 but is struggling to break below 1.1250, while GBP/USD tests the 1.2800 mark before the European markets open.

A busy EUR calendar is laying ahead, starting with the UK retail sales report for January at 09:30 GMT. Next, of relevance for the EUR, GBP traders remains the Eurozone trade balance for December slated for release at 10:00 GMT.

Meanwhile in the NA session, the key risk events remain the US industrial production data that will drop in at 14:15 GMT, soon followed by the University of Michigan onsumer sentiment gauge at 15:00 GMT. The focus will also remain on the weekly US rigs count data due to be published by Baker Hughes oilfield services company due at 18:00 GMT. Also, in the day, speeches from the global central bankers are scheduled, with ECB’s Governing Council member Cœuré speech coming at 13:00 GMT, and FOMC member Bostic coming at 14:55 GMT.

Brent oil prices hit 2019 highs above $65 per barrel on Friday, spurred by OPEC-led supply cuts and a partial shutdown of Saudi Arabia's biggest offshore oil field. Saudi Arabia, the de facto leader of OPEC, said earlier this week that it would reduce output even more than the deal called for, while Russia is withholding supply to prop up prices. The US oil output, however, continues to counter the measures implemented by OPEC+, and that could cap gains in oil prices.

Gold is trading over $1314 ahead of the London market opens on Friday, following the release of weak U.S. retail sales and China inflation data. The yellow metal attracted some bids today after the Commerce Department reported U.S. retail sales tumbled 1.2% in December. Added to that, reports that China and the U.S. have not been making much progress during trade talks this week gave extra support to gold prices also.

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