This week promises to be a bumper week with the all-important BREXIT vote coming up on Thursday. Initial poles have the remains and leaves in balance and it will all come down to the wire despite current optimism that the vote will be to remain. The current optimism has the GBP trading higher across the board and the pound has gained more than 700 pips against the USD with some punters touting 1.5500to 1.60 should the UK remain in the EU. On the other hand, they see an exit vote dropping the GBPUSD several thousand pips to the 1.2000 region. Whatever the decision, one thing is for sure- we will be experiencing severe volatility on GBP pairs with end off week options traders best positioned to take advantage of the recent volatility as there are no draw downs on equity from the large swings, only the initially investment is at risk allowing for the GBP to swing wildly up until the vote.
In globalized market place we now live in, all and any news regarding the BREXIT vote will affect several assets across the globe, with an increased risk of exit leading to safe haven buying of gold, JPY and CHF while a decreases in risk will see markets sell these instruments.
Other major events for today are as follows:
- German Constitutional Court Ruling is due to be released on whether the ECB`s actions regarding OMT`s was constitutional. Should they rule against the ECB, we would expect the EUR to dampen across the board but if they vote in favor of the ECB, we could see the EUR strengthen further.
- German ZEW Economic Sentiment expected at 5.1
- ECB`s Draghi is due to testify on monetary policy
- FED Chair Yellen to testify on the semi-annual Monetary Policy Report
- FOMC member Powell Speaks