Something for everybody today as we start off with UK Retail Sales data for the month of September, this figure will indicate how Britons are spending in the post Brexit environment, providing key data as to the state of consumer confidence in the UK economy, the better the figure the better the pound will fare.
Then on to Europe where we have the release of the Min Bid rate from the ECB which, though expected unchanged at 0%, will be the prelude to the all-important ECB press conference. With the EUR getting pounded of late all eyes will be on the conference as they try and decipher the banks current and future intentions for monetary policy. Should ECB president Draghi hint at more measures to heat up a cooling EU, we would see the EURUSD break its JULY lows as bears search for equilibrium lower. However, should Draghi maintain his bullish tone and not announce any new measures or fears then the EUR will be quick to snap up its recent loses as we see the EURUSD head north of 1.1000.
The afternoon session also contains US data which markets will scrutinize as they try to ascertain the health of the US economy, each release has growing importance as we head to the November Fed meeting as we expect the, data sensitive, Fed to take into consideration all data up to that point in determining the future of monetary policy in the US. The better the data, the better the odds of the FED lifting rates which will bode well for the USD and vice versa for worse than expected data which will see the USD tumble.
Last but not least we have the BOJ press Conference which has the USDJPY ranging between 103.00 and 104.00 in anticipation of whether the bank will intervene in markets now or in the near future. With Japan aiming to spur inflation and having already pushed several measure to try and achieve this, markets will wait and see if Kuroda approves of the current status of the Japanese economy or not. Should he mention more stimulus or measures then we would see the JPY get hit hard as the JPY devalues further.
Today’s key economic data is as follows:
- Retail Sales m/m expected at 0.3%
- MPC Member Shafik Speaks
- EU Economic Summit
- Minimum Bid Rate expected unchanged at 0%
- ECB Press Conference
- Philly Fed Manufacturing Index expected at 5.2
- Unemployment Claims expected at 251k
- Existing Home Sales expected at 5.36M
- BOJ Gov Kuroda Speaks