Amid lack of certainty on the US-China trade deal prospects and China’s first Repo rate cut since 2015, the market mood remained cautiously optimistic on Monday.

Moreover, the ongoing Hong Kong civil turmoil also kept the risk tone somewhat fragile. As a result, the Asian equities traded mixed while the weakness in the US Treasury yields left the US dollar broadly undermined.

GBP/USD emerged the top gainer and headed towards 1.2950 on increased hopes of UK PM Johnson’s re-election, while USD/JPY traded with mild gains around 108.90, with the upside capped by the 200-DMA at 109.00. Meanwhile, the EUR/USD pair clocked fresh one-week highs at 1.1065.

We have a quiet start to the relatively calm week ahead, in terms of the macroeconomic releases and hence, the UK political updates and US-China trade developments will remain the central focus.

As for Monday’s EUR calendar, the speeches from the European Central Bank (ECB) policymakers will headline alongside the German Bundesbank (Buba) monthly economic report. The UK docket remains data-empty while the US session also sees an absence of significant first-tier economic news.

Key ECB-speak ahead:

  • 09:00 GMT – ECB’s De Guindos
  • 13:00 GMT – ECB De Cos
  • 13:20 GMT – ECB’s Lane

Oil opened the week on a positive note, having refreshed two-month highs at 57.98, as the US-China trade deal optimism continues to underpin the market sentiment amid a sharp drop in US Rigs Count and Aramco’s IPO offer.

Gold seesaws around $1468 as traders weigh geopolitical tension, trade optimism US-China trade. Recently mixed messages from the global central bankers add to the safe-haven moves.