Yesterday’s UK data saw the GBP punished across the board as inflation figures showed that the UK economy is cooling down despite recent BOE intervention and sparking calls for further action. Today’s unemployment and wage inflation data will provide yet another matrix to grade the effectiveness of the recent a BOE action, if the data also comes out worse than expected, we would see further weakness in the GBP and upside to UK equities as the sparks are fanned and positon placing for further action begins piling in.
Down under has been feeling the brunt of a strengthening USD and weakening commodity prices as we have seen the AUD tumble several 100 pips off its recent highs, today’s data will either add to the gloom for the AUD, if worse than expected or give some respite to wary bulls if better than expected.
Crude traders will eagerly be awaiting the Crude Inventories out of the states as traders look to see if the recent rumours of severe oversupply have any weight to them. Should the inventory build-up be much larger than expected we will a further slide in crude while lower numbers will see the fear of oversupply subside a little as crude price rise with the forces of demand and supply battle it out, with price the weapon of choice.
Today’s key economic data is as follows:
- Average Earnings Index 3m/y expected at 2.1%
- Claimant Count Change expected at 1.7k
- Unemployment Rate expected at 4.9%
- Gov Council Member Wilkins Speaks
- Import Prices m/m expected at -0.1%
- Crude Oil Inventories expected at 2.8M
- GDP q/q expected at 1.1%
- RBA Assist Gov Debelle Speaks
- Employment change expected at 15.2K
- Unemployment Rate expected at 5.7%