First up is the release of the Manufacturing PMI out of the UK. The GBP has recovered well from its March lows and is pushing higher against its counterparts. Today’s Manufacturing PMI will either confirm the recent strength or see the GBP give back some ground. The Manufacturing PMI is a leading indicator of economic health and traders watch the figure closely in a bid to determine how optimistic manufacturers are and the likelihood of a more active economy in the future. A better than expected release will see the GBP climb higher while a worse than expected release will see the GBP retrace its recent gains.
Later in the day, we are expecting the release of the GDT Price Index out of New Zealand which will indicate the change in the average price of dairy products sold at auction. The figure is regarded as a leading indicator of the country’s trade balance given the volume of dairy traded with its trading partners. A better than expected release will imply that more NZD are required to purchase the dairy thus pushing up the value of the NZD higher. A worse than expected release will see the NZD devalued as traders’ price in the lower demand expectations.
Following this, we will see the release of the NZD Employment Change Figure q/q which will indicate the change in the number of employed people in the last quarter. The last three releases have been positive but falling, implying that the labor market is slowing down. If today’s figures beats expectations, we will see traders buy the NZD as they price in a stabilizing of the labor market. However, a lower than expected print will see the NZD slump as markets price in the slack in the labor market and the expected negative affect on the NZD economy at large.