Yesterday was a bumper day for GBP bulls as we saw Prime Minister May take the podium to outline the 12 step proposal to be taken on Brexit. Her speech was lauded as being thorough and managed to clear up a fair amount of uncertainty which was well received by traders who were quick to snap up the relatively undervalued pound. The pound gained across the board with the GBPUSD gaining over 350 pips while the EUR gave up some 175 pips against the GBP. With the UK having outlined the position they will be taking into the negation room the pressure now lies with the EU to give their rhetoric which we will get a first taste of today as EU members are set to take the podium and comment on their views on how Brexit will take place. The EU is under immense pressure to be stern as not give the UK an exit without a penalty as a low cost exit for the UK will entice other members to do the same which will weigh heavy on the EUR which is surprisingly bid given the recent events.
Today sees a host of economic release which will keep traders on their toes with the UK releasing employment data in the form of the Average Earnings index 3m/y and the Claimant Count Change, expected at 2.6% and 4.6k respectively. Better than expected release will add to the GBP`s gains as we see further buying while worse than expected releases will dampen the mood sending the GBP lower.
Form the States, we have a host of release which will be highly anticipated in the new environment where the USD appears to be losing steam and the USD index, a measure of the USD strength against a basket of global currencies, continues its decline. The data to watch is the CPI and Core CPI release, expected at 0.3% and 0.2% and also the speech by Fed`s Yellen. Better than expected releases and a positive tone by Yellen will see the USD flourish as bulls manage to lift the USD index off of the 100 level. However, worse than expected inflation data and a pessimistic speech by Yellen will see USD bears vindicated as the dollar continues to tumble, extending its multi week lows.
Also of note are the releases out of the Bank of Canada (BOC). The BOC will announce its Overnight rate, expected unchanged at 0.5%, and the BOC will release its Monetary and Rate statements. The rates are expected to remain as is and any real impact form the event will come from the reports, where if the BOC is bullish, we will see the CAD strengthen across the board and vice versa should the BOC strike a more dovish tone.