Today’s highlight is the ECB Bid Rate release followed by the monthly ECB conference in which markets will be looking to the ECB for its reaction to Brexit and its view on how it will impact the EURO ZONE and the EURO. So far comments from ECB members have been mixed, with some saying that the EU can weather the storm without the need for action by the ECB and others, including President Draghi, who warn that more stimulus will be needed. Key things to look for are any talk of loosening monetary policy further, by more QE or a decrease in interest rates, which would result in the EUR depreciating as the printing presses are switched back on. A more hawkish stance, in which the bank does not commit to more QE or adopts a wait and see stance, will see the EUR stable to bullish against its counterparts.
The UK is also due to release its Retail Sales data which market traditionally watch as a sign of the UK`s economic strength, since the figure strengthen goes hand in hand with consumer confidence and will show how Britons are viewing the Brexit and its impact on their future. Lower than expected numbers will send the GBP crashing, while better than expected numbers will have GBP bulls rejoicing as the look to capture more ground.
The US tops the day with 3 important releases, which will be closely watched at this time, seeing that the US INDEX is strengthening and the US begins to find its footing as the king of the hill again. Better than expected data, will stoke the fires for a FED rate increase, leading to a healthy gain in the USD. Else, worse than expected data will see the USD flatten out again as markets wait for more data.
Today’s key economic releases are as follows:
- Retail Sales expected at -0.4%
- Public Sector Net Borrowing expected at 9.3B
- Minimum Bid Rate expected unchanged at 0%
- ECB Press Conference
- Wholesale Sales m/m expected at 0.2%
- Philly Fed Manufacturing Index expected at 5.1
- Unemployment Claims expected at 271k
- Existing Home Sales expected at 5.48M