Increased global tensions have seen market take a risk off approach, preferring the relative safety of gold, the JPY and the CHF. The tensions have also seen crude oil prices rise while equities have taken a dive. The tensions are on two fronts for now, one being the US`s stance on Syria, in which they have recently bombed in what they describe as an effort to protect the Syrian population from the Assad regime, who allegedly used chemical weapons against the population last week. The US`s effort are not finding the support they expected form other world leaders but with ongoing rhetoric markets are poised for an all-out declaration of war on Syria. To the east, Korean-US and Chinese tensions are flaring with threats of attacks on nuclear producing facility’s in the DRNK by the Chinese should they cross the “bottom line”. So long as the tensions intensify and as the weekend approaches, we will see markets continue to flock to safe haven assets.
From an economic perspective, things to watch today are the UK labor data which if we see better than expected result will result in a strengthening of the GBP and vice versa if the figures disappoint.
Out of Canada, we are expecting the Bank of Canada (BOC) to take the stand releasing the Overnight Rate along with the BOC Rate Statement, Monetary Policy Report and finally a press conference and speech by the BOC Gov Poloz. Rates are expected to remain unchanged at 0.5% and the focus is likely to be on reports and the press conference. Should the BOC strike a hawkish tone we will see the e Cad continue to strengthen adding to its crude linked gains while a more dovish stance will see the CAD weakened across the board.
Out of the US, we are expecting President Trump to take the podium where he will address several factors, most important of which will be mentions of fiscal stimulus, tax cuts and regulatory relaxations. A more upbeat stance by Trump will see the USD and US equities climb higher while a more pessimistic tone combined with a hard line on current geopolitical events will see the USD and US equities tumble.