Today’s speech by the Swiss National Banks Chairman, Jordan, will be closely watched by markets as the CHF continues to be pressured higher by safe haven buying which has led to the Bank adopting a negative rate policy while warning of a possible fx intervention if the strength gets out of hand. If the speech reiterates the Banks concerns about an over inflated CHF, we will see the currency sold off as traders prepare for a potential intervention in the markets or a further decrease in the interest rates. On the other hand, should the speech be more accommodative of the current conditions, the CHF might strengthen further as the language of intervention is taken off the table.
The UK economy continues to evolve in the wake of the Brexit vote and today’s release of the Prelim GDP q/q figure out of the UK will indicate the change in the inflation adjusted value of goods and services produced in the UK. The figure is regarded as the broadest measure of economic growth and a key represented of how the UK economy is performing. A higher than expected release will see the GBP strengthen as traders’ price in the improved conditions and economic growth occurring. However, if the figure comes in worse than expected, the GBP will be sold off as traders’ price in the dampening of economic growth in the UK.
The USA is also due for the release of its GDP q/q, however, this is in the form of the Advanced release which is likely to have a larger impact than the other two GDP reports released during the month. The figure is expected to come in at 1.3%, a stark difference form last quarter’s 2.1%. The decline is already priced in to the value of the USD and market will react to surprises accordingly. Should the figure come in better than expected, the USD will be bought and should the figure come in less than expected, the USD will be sold.