Today sees a little action for all three of the major economies with data out of the EU, UK and the USA set to be released.
The data out of the EU comes in the form of the German Zew Economic sentiment figure, expected at 18.9. The figure is regarded as a leading indicator in that it will likely determine spending of individuals and business in the upcoming month, with a better than expected print implying that citizens are more confident of the future and more likely to spend which will see the EUR strengthen in anticipation while a worse than expected print will see the EUR sold off as a decrease in economic activity is prices in.
The data out of the US comes in the form of the Empire State Manufacturing Index, which seeks to measure the state of affairs of the economy based on the view of purchasing managers, who generally have an eye on the future. A better than expected print implies that individuals view the economy as improving which will see the USD strengthen while a worse than expected print will imply caution as we see the USD weaken. Also of note are speeches by two FOMC members and the statement from the Treasury Secretary. All three will be scrutinized and positive sentiment will be priced in by a strengthening USD while negative sentiments will see the USD weaken.
Today’s main events are related to the UK with the CPI y/y, expected at 1.4%, leading the way as investors pause to see how the UK economy is fairing in the wake of the Brexit vote. A better than expected print will see the GBP strengthen as growth in the UK continues to improve while a dampened figure will see the GBP weaken as the fallout of the vote continues to vote on the UK`s economy. The most anticipated release, however, is that of Prime Minister May`s speech in which she is set to outline her stance on the Brexit procedures. The speech is tentative but largely expect to be released at 11:45 GMT. May has been very clear to date stating that she does not want a “half in, half out” situation to unfold and insisting that the UK will exit the EU hard and fast which has weighed on the GBP in recent trade. Should she continue with the same tone, we will see further weakness in the GBP while a softer speech by May will see the GBP strengthen.