Important data out of the US tops a volatile week and will likely set the tone for next week. Retail sales will be scrutinised to gauge the consumer confidence in the US, better than expected data will have markets pricing in a stronger dollar as the increase in retail sales will be taken as an increase in confidence as consumers see a brighter tomorrow and forgo saving to consume now.
US PPI`s are a leading indicator of consumer inflation, as suppliers increase the price of goods to maintain an equilibrium in the face of increased demand. Better than expected data will relate to an increased consumer confidence which is key to a recovering economy while worse than expected data will convey that the US economy still has some way to go, depreciating the USD.
The UoM consumer sentiment number will directly show whether consumers are optimistic or pessimistic of the future of the US economy and this, It`s assumed, to affect consumer spending and thus the economy at large. Better than expected data will see the USD rise and vice versa for worse than expected data.
Today’s key economic figures are as follows:
- German Prelim GDP q/q expected at 0.3%
- Flash GDP q/q expected at 0.3%
- Core Retail Sales m/m expected at 0.2%
- PPI m/m expected at 0.1%
- Retail Sales m/m expected at 0.4%
- Core PPI m/m expected at 0.2%
- Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment expected at 91.5