The USD Index, a measure of the strength of the USD against a basket of currencies, saw some volatile trading as the USD`s initial strength on the back of better than expected ADP non-farm payrolls was reversed by the FOMC minute meetings which showed that the members were split on how aggressively to increase rates. The biggest hit came from the JPY which quickly saw flows form the USD as risk off sentiment gripped the market which led to the USDJPY closing at the days open, more than 100 pips lower than at the release of the minutes. Gold also quickly recanted its loses to close the day slightly positive as safe haven buying continued there too. Going forward the USD will remain sensitive to economic data and comments regarding fiscal and monetary policy. Today’s unemployment claims will give traders a good chance to understand the current state of the labor market ahead of tomorrow’s all-important NFP data. The unemployment Claims will show how many people claimed for unemployment for the first-time last week and a high than expected release will weigh on the USD index while a better than expected release will see the USD index move higher.
Elsewhere in commodities, crude oil moved higher despite higher than expected inventory builds out of the US as market participants saw the potential for further supply cuts by OPEC as more important and subsequently priced in the expectation of further announcement regarding the topic. Going forward, any news regarding cuts to supply will see the commodity move higher while doubts about the supply cuts will see crude sink back to the $50 mark.
Also in our scope, is todays data out of the ECB in the form of the ECB Monetary Policy Meeting Accounts and a speech by ECB president Mario Draghi. The accounts will give a detailed summary of the concerns and points raised in the previous ECB meeting and give a clearer understanding why rates where kept on hold. Should the accounts show that the members are concerned about the EU economy, we would see the EUR drop further while a more optimistic report will see the ERU move higher.