The weekend saw Clinton retake poll positions after being vindicated from her latest email scandal, which has seen markets acting accordingly with risk-on sentiment returning as we see the USD strengthen, Gold fall, crude rise and JPY, CHF and EUR lose ground as we see money flowing out of safe haven currencies. We expect markets to remain sensitive to any data regarding the election, with the early morning trend continuing if Clinton stays in front or reversing should Trump regain his composure.
The price of crude oil has fallen by more than 15% less than a month, so that the OPEC countries are working on an agreement on the control of the amount of oil supplies, which should contribute to the growth of prices of goods. Although oil is the "fan" Clinton, and the last day we could see some relief in her charts, markets still remain sensitive to any news regarding the agreement, as signs of a positive outcome of the case will lead to an increase in oil prices, if undefined state will be delayed, then, according to Goldman Sachs, the price of oil will go toward the $ 40.
With the UK economy only now starting to feel the brunt of BREXIT, we have seen markets sensitive to any data which helps paint a better picture of the health of the UK economy. Today’s Halifax HPI m/m, expected at 0.3%, is no exception with markets eager to see whether this leading indicator will show an increase in the price of housing, implying confidence in the UK economy which would result in a stronger GBP as we expect more investment to enter the housing market or whether the figure will show that housing prices have slumped which would weigh heavy on the GBP.
Today’s key economic releases are as follows:
- German Factory Orders m/m expected at 0.2%
- Eurogroup Meetings
- Halifax HPI m/m expected at 0.3%