Today’s data is spread out across regions and all are expected to have significant impacts on their respective economies.
From the US we are expecting the ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI data, which given the recent barrage of worse than expected data out of the US, USD bulls will be hoping for better than expected data if there is any hope of keeping a SEP rate hike alive. Better than expected data will see the USD rise as we see upside to the probability of a rate hike while worse than expected data will see the USD depreciate as the probability of rate hike declines further.
The Swiss National Bank chairman Jordan is also due to speak today and it will be interesting to see his view on the current global and local economic conditions. Given the Swiss currencies nature of being a safe haven currency, the SNB has over the last few years been engaged in a never ending battle to prevent the CHF from appreciating too much as this weighs heavy on the countries exporters. Should he announce further actions by the SNB to depreciate the CHF, we would see the currency sold off across the board while ant hawkishness from him will see the CHF appreciate in value.
The Australian dollar Is also due for more important data after last night’s rate decision in which the RBA left rates unchanged at 1.50% and delivered rate statement in which the bank took a rather neutral (read hawkish) view on the state of the Australian economy. Should today's GDP data beat expectations, we would see the AUD appreciate further while a worse than expected data will see the AUD give back some of its recent gains as it depreciates against its counterparts.
Today’s key economic data is as follows:
- ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI expected at 55.4
- SNB Chairman Jordan Speaks
- GDT Price Index expected previously at 12.7%
- GDP q/q expected at 0.4%