The week ahead has many a fundamental news release to look forward to, events which are sure to have traders licking their lips at the implied volatility and the numerous trading opportunities they create. Let us take a look at our top 3 picks:

  • Tuesday sees the release of the CPI y/y data from the UK, expected at 2.2%, slightly lower than the previous release of 2.3%. the figure measure the change in the price of goods and services purchased by UK consumers and is regarded as the most important figure in determining the overall inflation in the economy. The BOE keeps a close eye on this figure as it largely bases its interest rate decisions on whether inflation is too high or too low. A better than expected release will have traders buying the GBP in anticipation of a heating up of the economy which may prompt the BOE to increase rates and vice versa should the figure come in lower than expected.
  • Wednesdays US crude oil inventories will be closely watched by traders given the recent volatility in the price of crude oil. The new US attacks on Syria have resulted in the price of crude rising as trader’s price in the potential for an oil supply disruption which will dampen supply and force prices higher. If the inventories come in lower than expected, we could see buyers further pile in to the commodity as they price in the depleted stocks as a sign of either a drop of supply or an increase in demand. On the other hand, should the inventories show a larger than expected build, we would see crude oil fall back towards the $50 mark as trader’s price in the rise as a sign of supply stability or a decrease in demand for the commodity.
  • The week will be topped off by the release of US Retail Sales m/m, expected at 0.1%. The figure represents the change in the total value of sales at the retail level and is considered to give an early insight into the activity of consumers, who are the backbone of the economy. The figure will offer traders the opportunity to shore up their positions going into the weekend with a better than expected release likely to see the USD strengthen while a worse than expected release will see the USD weaken.

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