The week ahead has many a fundamental news release to look forward to, events which are sure to have traders licking their lips at the implied volatility and the numerous trading opportunities they create. Let us take a look at our top 3 picks:
1. The Australian Retail Sales figure is due to be released on Tuesday and is a measure of the change in the total value of retail sales in the Australian economy. This figure is regarded as the earliest and broadest look at consumer spending, indicating whether consumers are spending more or less than the previous month. A better than expected print will likely see the AUD appreciate, as it implies that consumers are more confident in the economic outlook of the country and their ability to make a living thus loosening their purse strings as they forgo savings to consume now. Conversely a worse than expected figure usually results in the AUD depreciating as fear of the future causes consumers to tighten their purse strings.
2. Wednesday sees the release of the US Crude Oil Inventories which previously showed a build of -0.9M. With growing concerns of oversupply and the inability of OPEC members to convince markets of their ability to supress supply which caused the price of crude oil to plummet 10% last week, the inventories, which show the build-up of oil in storage, will either confirm that there is a dire oversupply of oil or not. Should the build-up be larger than expected then we would see crude price head south towards the $40 mark while a lower than expected build up will result in respite for crude bulls as they look towards $50 p/bbl.
3. The American CPI q/q is due on Friday and is regarded as the primary gauge of consumer prices and how they have changed relative to the last quarter. The figure tends to have a large impact on the US dollar and US equities as it accounts for a majority of the overall inflation in the economy with a rising/falling inflation signalling that the economy is heating up/cooling down at which point the central bank may opt to increase/ decrease rates in an attempt to maintain its inflation mandate. Prospects of rising interest rates usually result in the appreciation of the respective countries currency and devaluation of the countries equity market while vice versa for a prospect of falling rates.
The above are just the tip of the iceberg of the daily events which occur in markets, for daily technical and fundamental analysis please visit: https://www.opteck.biz/fundamental-analysis/